Steel Kitten

Very slightly tilting down...

Over the last few weeks I've become an avid fan of reading everything I can from all sides of the debate to try and get a clearer overview of what could happen over the next few years. Obviously in the first few days the seesaw swung madly up and down, and it looked a bit like that game where you try to unseat the person at the other end by slamming yourself down hard your end. In this case, Doom and Gloom were at one end and Opportunity and Prosperity at the end. After few days of slamming down hard, it all started to quieten down a bit and the seesaw went from violently rocking to gently tilting up and down on a daily basis.

I don't want to be the harbinger of bad tidings, but now all the fuss about the Tory party leadership has been resolved, I can see that the seesaw has almost come to rest tilted towards Doom and Gloom. There are too many little things starting to stack up and are pointing towards recession and it will begin with the interest rates coming down and soon. Dropping interest rates are about a close an admittance of problems from the Powers that Be at the Bank of England that you can get. The hope by dropping them is that the banks will keep lending, businesses will keep on doing business, everyone will pay less money on their loans, and people looking for new homes will be buoyed up by the falling rates to try and get a good deal (which makes the large assumption that banks will pass on the rate fall). 

However, if you remember we dropped to 0.5% in March 2009 to try and instill confidence in the markets in the face of recession. It didn't work, we had one anyway. The second that interest rates dropped, the banks and building societies squealed in fear and stopped lending money. The Bank of England started printing money to try and get things moving, but businesses got nervous, started making people redundant, stopped recruiting, stopped investing, stopped marketing, stopped training, just stopped in general due to fear of the unknown. 

The worrying thing is, everyone thinks it will be different this time, but fear is the biggest motivator of paralysis there is. Right now, rather than seeing the opportunities and acting bravely to seek them, I'm willing to bet the majority of businesses - including your employer if you have a job - are looking at how to reduce their risks. They're looking at how to retrench, save money and stay put for a couple of years to 'see how Brexit pans out'.

It's human nature. Why do you think the main defensive mechanism of animals when threatened is to stay still in the hope they won't be seen? We used to do it when picking our way across open ground hoping a sabre tooth tiger wouldn't spot us, and we still do it today. 

Can I make a suggestion? Start preparing for a recession just in case. Make changes to you spending behaviour now out of choice, rather than out of necessity. Stash away a little bit of money and get that emergency fund looking good. Get out of debt if possible. Revisit your essential bills and switch suppliers to try and get the best deals possible. Cancel the unused gym membership. In fact, look at all memberships you barely make use of and cancel them. Make some extra money. Sell some stuff on eBay. Create some wiggle room in your budget.

Martin and I are about to start again with our suppliers, so we can hunt down some really good deals, but we've decided that, for now, money earmarked for savings and mortgage overpayments will be stashed temporarily as cash. If all goes well, optimism rules the day and a recession is avoided, in a year's time we'll distribute the money as we planned.

We realise that by our actions of battening down the hatches we could be part of precipitating a recession, that by not carrying on as normal we might cause it to happen, but frankly, I believe in the power of human nature. And don't forget, the USA is facing its own issues with a looming election and the possibility of Donald Trump being the President. The ripples from that will reach us.

I smell a storm coming.

I love a good snuffle

 

Found this lovely oil painting at the car boot sale this morning. The seller only charged me a £1. It was quite dirty, so I gave it a clean up with some warm water, washing up liquid and a soft toothbrush. That did the trick.

 

We've been trying to work out where it is, with the two most obvious possibilities being Northern Italy with the Alps in the background, or the South of France, maybe Provence, with the Dolomites in the background.

It needs a frame, as the edges of the painting are uneven and need hiding, but it won't be easy finding one that size. Still, I'll lurk around eBay and see what I can find.

Not all bad news

Poor Fleagle is totally banjaxed at the moment. She has terrible diarrhoea and is flaked out next to me on the table recovering. No idea what she has eaten to turn her stomach like this, the rear end noises were terrible and strangely human. Anyway, she's on plain baked chicken and white rice until it settles down, which means instead of a chicken risotto tonight we will be having a bacon one :) I have my budget and I'm sticking to it. 

In other news, while Brexit didn't do much for my job prospects, it did wonders for Martin's SIPP. I went across to check it yesterday to discover it has gone up 7.7%! All of the money is in the Vanguard LifeStrategy 60/40 fund, which is a collection of funds from all over the world – a 'fund of funds'. I didn't have the knowledge or confidence at the time we opened up the account to work out all the little funds I would need to make up a portfolio that was well diversified for the lowest fee so I plumped for this one in the meantime, and just never bothered to change.

After reading around, I now know that this is being experienced by anyone who has their money in this type of highly diversified fund. Just because the UK is having problems doesn't mean everyone else is, and UK stocks and shares make up only a small amount that are in the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds. Also, 40% of the fund is bonds, which tend to do ok in a crisis.

So I feel a little bit better about things.

I've sat down and worked out a plan in case I lose my job. Well, actually it had already worked itself out but I hadn't noticed. We will be making overpayments on the mortgage, which is a bit of a safety net right there as we can draw them back whenever we want them, but also as we will have a fixed mortgage for two years, the money that Audrey wants to give Martin and I from her house sale will have to sit in a separate account until that deal runs out, at which point we can pay it across. That means that if I lose my job between then and now, however, that lump sum + overpayments will be sat in the bank and could be used to support us while I look for another job. Of course all of this depends on her selling her house, but I'm being optimistic on that score, as it is an ok house in a good area.

That doesn't mean I won't be full steam ahead on the moneymaking, moneysaving and frugalleering my way around the world of savings, discounts and thriftiness! I've written a list of possible side hustles, and was quite impressed with how many were on there. Instead of limiting myself I threw open the floodgates and let all sorts of ideas come out, some more daft than others! Every now and then I sit down to go through each one in turn and work out which ones are feasible in terms of cost and time, and which are just not goers. I'll whittle it down to three and get the most lucrative up and running asap when we move.

Talking of moving, the house business is almost at an end. We are waiting to exchange and it looks like we will be completing on 18th of this month now, and moving up the day after. Thank goodness. It's been very disconcerting to live in someone else's home for two months so far, although it has helped us save a little more money. I ran out of homemade bread and butter pickles this week, but didn't feel comfortable whipping up a batch in someone else's kitchen due to the strong vinegar smell. 

Roll on the 18th when I can pickle and jam to my hearts content in my own kitchen once more.

 

Midnight takes my mind off things

Roughly at the same time as that Brexit business happened, Midnight the chicken decided to frighten me by being very ill, but not an illness I've come across. First it seemed like sour crop with lots of nasty fluid in her crop that a two day dose of anti-fungals sorted out. I gave her a beakicure as well, as her beak looked like it was hooking over and that could mean she couldn't pick up food properly. 

A few days later, she went downhill again and she didn't seem to have much food in her crop, so I made up some special mash with plenty of extra chicken spice with multi-vitamins and minerals. Again she perked up and seemed ok, and carried on eating well for a couple of days. 

Then yesterday she seemed subdued again, and again she had nothing in her crop, but after examining her she went downhill quickly. Ended up sitting on the grass hunkered down with her eyes closed panting and her vent pulsing. All the hallmarks of being egg-bound. I left her alone for an hour and watched her, but eventually I knew I had to check to see if she had anything stuck. I must be the only person who keeps KY jelly for the chickens!

There was nothing there, but she perked up A LOT after my examination, which made Martin and I snigger a bit, but she tucked into a big plate of food and some mealworms then this morning she came leaping out of the coop. 

I've no idea what this is about, but she's lost a lot of weight and condition, and hasn't laid any eggs for a couple of weeks. Having these good days and bad days, sudden funny turns, not a good portent for the future, perhaps cancer, or a heart or metabolic problem. I don't think there's anything I can do but keep trying to feed her up so she has as much energy as possible..